State Climatologist Says No Immediate Relief for Rain Deficit in Sight

Georgia State Climatologist Bill Murphey said at least for the start of summer, hot and dry conditions are going to continue.

Summer officially started Monday night.

Currently, Stephens County and northeast Georgia are in moderate drought.

Murphey said that the forecast for the start of summer does not show a likelihood for any substantial relief.

“At least for this week and next week, it still looks like a dry pattern we are in,” said Murphey. “I do not see any major precip events for the next six to seven days. Maybe towards the end of the month, it looks like we might get a little wetter pattern in here, which will help us out.”

He went on to say that rain is needed to help make up a rainfall deficit that exists for Stephens County in 2016.

According to Murphey, that deficit really grew this past Spring.

“If you look at overall, climatologically speaking and historically speaking, it is the 11th driest Spring on record in Toccoa,” said Murphey. “That record goes back to 1893. You have only had 7.93 inches of rain for those months.”

He went on to say that year to date, Toccoa is 6.91 inches below normal.

Not only has it been dry, but Murphey said recent temperatures have been warmer than normal too.

“The average temperature departure is 4.2 degrees above normal so far for the month in June,” said Murphey.

Murphey said currently the Climate Prediction Center from the National Weather Service says that the precipitation outlook is uncertain for the summer, but the likelihood is more for above normal temperatures.

However, he said tropical activity could be a possibility for providing some relief if it affects Georgia in some way.

“Average or maybe slightly above average as far as activity goes in the Atlantic basin based on us transitioning out of that El Nino pattern into a neutral pattern and perhaps a La Nina pattern by late Summer of early Fall,” said Murphey, who explained a La Nina pattern can sometimes result in increased tropical activity in the Atlantic.

Murphey cautioned that it is difficult to predict long-range what will happen with the temperatures and the precipitation throughout the summer months for the area.